Executive Summary

Overview Hosted by the Illinois Power Agency (IPA) and the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC), this workshop features a presentation by the consulting firm E3 on the methodology and preliminary findings of the Illinois Resource Adequacy (RA) Study. The study assesses physical and market reliability risks for Illinois and its broader regional transmission organizations (PJM and MISO) over a 5-year forecast period up to 2030. The goal is to determine if an RA shortfall will occur, which would trigger the development of an action plan to mitigate reliability risks.

Key Findings

• Massive Capacity Shortfalls Looming: Both PJM and MISO are projected to need significant new resource adequacy capacity (effective capacity) to meet their reliability standards in the near term. Without new resources beyond those already in advanced development, PJM faces a gap of 22 to 28 gigawatts (GW) of effective capacity by 2030. Similarly, MISO faces a projected RA need of up to 18 GW by 2030.

• Primary Drivers - Data Centers & Retirements: The most material driver of this shortfall is surging load growth, overwhelmingly fueled by the rapid expansion of data centers. The retirement of legacy thermal generation units serves as a secondary, but highly significant, driver compounding the need for new firm capacity.

• Illinois' Critical Dependency on RTOs: The ComEd zone (within PJM) and the Ameren/LZ4 zone (within MISO) in Illinois face similar pressures. While both zones possess adequate transmission capabilities to rely on imported capacity over the next 5 years, Illinois will only be resource adequate if the broader PJM and MISO footprints have sufficient supply.

• Shifting Risk Periods: As renewable energy penetration (like solar and wind) increases, the critical loss-of-load risks are moving away from traditional gross summer peak hours. The new reliability risk periods are shifting to the "net peak" load hours—specifically summer evenings (after the sun sets) and winter overnight and morning periods.

Uncertainties and Next Steps The preliminary outlook remains highly sensitive to several uncertainties, including the actual trajectory and load profile of data center growth, federal policy and tariff headwinds affecting renewable development, and potential delays in thermal plant retirements. Following stakeholder feedback, a draft report will be released in November, with the final RA Study report scheduled for December 15, 2025. If a shortfall is confirmed, the IPA and IEPA will formulate a detailed action plan in 2026 to address these reliability risks.

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